Why this matters
You can’t make good choices if you’re working off last year’s assumptions.
This step helps you separate:
- Shifts: changes already underway.
- Signals: early indicators of possible futures.
- Tensions: pressures that persist across scenarios.
It then forces selection: out of everything you can see, what actually shapes strategic choice?
Keep it simple.
Part 1: Context
Complete this section as executive pre-work, Chair–CEO preparation, or individual reflection.
Strategic baseline - current operating reality
Short summaries only. Bullet points are fine.
Te Tiriti and relationships
Strategy does not sit outside relationship.
Part 2: Environment and Change
Once the brief is complete, move into interpreting the information.
What has shifted?
List key changes that are already underway.
Examples:
- Funding decisions made.
- Regulatory direction confirmed.
- Demand patterns altered.
- Leadership transitions completed.
Be selective. Not everything matters equally.
What is emerging?
Signals are early indicators of possible change. These include opportunities and disruptions.
Examples:
- Policy tone shifting
- Labour market tightening
- Partner instability
- Technology acceleration
- Community sentiment changing
Look at more subtle emerging signals that may not be as ‘loud’ as current pressures
Enduring tensions
Not everything shaping your choices is a shift. Some pressures are ongoing and structural.
Part 3: Futures mapping
Describe four plausible near-term futures (12–36 months) using Dator’s archetypes.
These futures are not predictions. The goal is to surface recurring vulnerabilities, dependencies, and assumptions that may not be obvious under current conditions. Not to assess performance of specific programmes or initiatives.
Define the futures
Stress test across futures
Use the four futures to test the resilience of your organisation.
The goal is to identify recurring strengths, vulnerabilities, pressures, and assumptions that shape strategic choice regardless of which future emerges.
For each future, consider:
- What becomes harder or easier to sustain?
- What pressures increase?
- What assumptions may no longer hold true?
- What would we need to rethink if this future emerged?
Preferred future
This the direction we want to be steering toward.
Part 4: Summary
What patterns show up across futures
Looking across futures:
- What consistently weakens?
- What consistently intensifies?
- Which assumptions look most fragile?
Where are we most exposed? Where could advantage come from?
Where might we be underestimating risk or opportunity?
Key influences
Now narrow it down.
Looking across the shifts, signals, tensions, future scenarios, and exposures you've identified:
- What are the key things shaping the environment
- Which issues will most influence your choices over the next 12–24 months?
- Where do you need clarity before making major decisions?