What is changing.

Why this matters

You can’t make good choices if you’re working off last year’s assumptions.

This step helps you separate:

• Shifts: changes already underway.
• Signals: early indicators of possible futures.
• Tensions: pressures that persist across scenarios.

It then forces selection: out of everything you can see, what actually shapes strategic choice?

Keep it simple.

Part 1: Context

Complete this section as executive pre-work, Chair–CEO preparation, or individual reflection.

Strategic baseline - current operating reality

Short summaries only. Bullet points are fine.

This table is a living record, not a one-off snapshot. If Step 2 or Step 3 sends you back here because something no longer holds, update the relevant row directly, note today's date under Last Reviewed, and add one line under What Changed & Why. Only some rows (goals, pressures, workforce, viability/differentiation/impact) are expected to move often. Values, Vision, Mission, Purpose, and Aspiration should rarely need touching.

Before We Move Forward

Not everything from prior direction needs revisiting. But carrying something forward out of habit is different from carrying it forward because it's still right.

Part 2: Te Tiriti and relationships

Strategy does not sit outside relationship.

Part 3: Environment and Change

Once the brief is complete, move into interpreting the information.

What has shifted?

List key changes that are already underway.

Examples:

• Funding decisions made.
• Regulatory direction confirmed.
• Demand patterns altered.
• Leadership transitions completed.

Be selective. Not everything matters equally.

What is emerging?

Signals are early indicators of possible change. These include opportunities and disruptions.

Examples:

• Policy tone shifting
• Labour market tightening
• Partner instability
• Technology acceleration
• Community sentiment changing

Look at more subtle emerging signals that may not be as ‘loud’ as current pressures

Structural tensions

Not everything shaping your choices is a shift. Some pressures are ongoing and structural.

Part 4: Futures mapping

Describe four plausible near-term futures (12–36 months) using Dator’s archetypes.

These futures are not predictions. The goal is to surface recurring vulnerabilities, dependencies, and assumptions that may not be obvious under current conditions. Not to assess performance of specific programmes or initiatives.

Define the futures

Stress test across futures

Use the four futures to test the resilience of your organisation.

The goal is to identify recurring strengths, vulnerabilities, pressures, and assumptions that shape strategic choice regardless of which future emerges.

For each future, consider:

• What becomes harder or easier to sustain?
• What pressures increase?
• What assumptions may no longer hold true?
• What would we need to rethink if this future emerged?

Preferred future

This the direction we want to be steering toward.

What patterns show up across futures

Looking across futures:

• What consistently weakens?
• What consistently intensifies?
• Which assumptions look most fragile?

Where are we most exposed? Where could advantage come from?

Where might we be underestimating risk or opportunity?

Key influences

Now narrow it down.

Looking across the shifts, signals, tensions, future scenarios, and exposures you've identified:

• What are the key things shaping the environment
• Which issues will most influence your choices over the next 12–24 months?
• Where do you need clarity before making major decisions?

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